Bison CIO Doubles Down Amidst Tariff Fear Sell-Off In Oil Stocks

In cyclical industries like oil and gas, the best investment opportunities often emerge during downturns — when sentiment is weak, but long-term fundamentals remain strong. We believe that now is one of those moments.

Historically, global oil demand has followed a steady upward trajectory, driven by population growth, industrialization, and rising energy needs across developing economies. The chart below illustrates this long-term demand trend — one that has proven resilient through financial crises, pandemics, and geopolitical shocks.

The recent sell-off in oil and gas equities reminds us of prior periods of fear — most notably during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID crash. In both instances, investors who bought during the downturn were rewarded with strong multi-year outperformance as the market recovered and energy demand rebounded.

This time appears no different. As the old saying goes, the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets — or as we prefer to put it, when the market is pricing fear, not fundamentals.

Timing the bottom is nearly impossible and isn’t necessary. In 2020, oil stocks fell sharply throughout the first quarter, ultimately crashing when oil prices briefly turned negative in March. Yet investors who put money to work at any point that year — before, during, or after the crash — still went on to earn multiples on their initial investment in the years that followed.

While the trigger for this market downturn—tariffs—is different from past sell-offs, the likely outcome for oil stocks remains the same. Prices have fallen considerably, but sub-$60 WTI is unsustainable for new drilling, which will slow production just as the global economy continues to demand more oil and related products.

To highlight our conviction in this opportunity, our CIO, Josh Young — who already has the majority of his net worth invested in the fund — recently added substantial funds to his investment. While we can’t predict the exact bottom, we believe the current environment presents significant upside potential and a compelling asymmetric opportunity.

Media Update

In March, Josh was the featured guest for energy law firm Oliva Gibbs’s 2025 Oil & Gas Market Outlook, where he discussed the current state of the oil and gas markets and his outlook for 2025. Later in the month, he appeared on the CEO and Market Experts channel to break down the key drivers behind recent oil price weakness and to share his forecasts for the coming years. Josh’s insights were also featured multiple times in Reuters — first on the progress of Trump’s “Drill-Baby-Drill” agenda, then on a bullish EIA monthly report for oil and petroleum products, and most recently on the uptick in refinery utilization.

Disclaimer

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